Geostrategic power index, recapitulation and kick off.

Ok so here we are in the sweltering summer heat and Putin have achieved his take over of the Crimea since everybody now is preoccupied with the unfoulding situation in Eastern Ukraine.  exactly as i predicted in March of this year.
Never mind now i will resume and update the geostrategic Power index with figures for past, present and the future to be able to see how the Power centre of gravity have / will move over time.
I will also do the same for some of the variables that is part of the Power index calculations itself i.e. population, economy and military expenditure.

To recapitulate in the meantime here are the concerned centroid positions ( center of gravity on the earths Surface ) as of year 2012:

- Population
—Demographic centre of gravity: Latitude = 30° , Longitude = 76° (North-west India)

- Economy
—Economic (BNP) centre of gravity: Latitude = 55° , Longitude = 53° (Russia, South-east of the city Kazan) 
 - Military expenditure

—Military expenditure centre of gravity: Latitude = 61° , Longitude = - 85° (North-central Hudson bay, Canada)

- Geostrategic power index

—Geostrategic power centre of gravity: Latitude = 55° , Longitude = 84° (East of Novosibirsk, Siberia/Russia)   

 

 

Please remember when looking on the maps at the concerned centroid positions that i have arrived at these results in a highly scientific manner based on 60-70 million calculations. However it is important to keep in mind when looking at the maps and the centroid results displayed that the Earth is obviously not a flat surface but almost a perfect sphere and so with this in mind it is understandable that the centroid positions are situated on the eurasian landmass with the exception of the military expenditure centroid which is close to the US due to the unprecented elevation of the USA in this regard the last 2 decades after the demise of the Sovjet union. During this time and up to the recent present when the US have accounted for approx half of the Worlds total military expenditures.    

 

Finally in this recapitulation of the current situation i want to highliught the current year 2012) Power index ranking of countries where China is slightly on top ahead of the US with 20 % and 17 % of the Worlds total Power respectively.

Geostrategic power index results:

1. China                                        20 %
2. USA                                          17 %
3. India                                            8 %
4. Russia                                         7 %
5. France                                         4 %
6. UK                                              4 %
7. NorthKorea                                 3 %
8. Pakistan                                      3 %
9. Israel                                           3 %
10. Brazil                                          3 %
11. Japan                                           3 %
12. Germany                                     2 %
13. Rest of World                           23 %  

Comment on the Russia - Ukraine conflict (3)

Maskirovka

The Soviet military doctrine of maskirovka was developed in the 1920s, and used by Zhukov in the 1939 Battles of Khalkhin Gol against Japan. For example the Field Regulations of the Red Army (1929) stated that "Surprise has a stunning effect on the enemy. For this reason all troop operations must be accomplished with the greatest concealment and speed." Concealment was to be attained by confusing the enemy with movements, camouflage and use of terrain, speed, use of night and fog, and secrecy

Comment on the Russia - Ukraine conflict (2)

As i predicted previously in March, Putins Russia is now stirring up trouble in the Eastern parts of Ukraine and massing some troops close to the border.  My god how predictable and my god how predictable the feeble reaction from the western World. The Crimea land grab have now almost disappeared from the international agenda and Putin have in effect established facts on the ground concerning Crimea just by playing on the fears and anxieties of the western World by waging some low cost military manouvers and firing up some russian speakers in  Ukraine, Soon Putin will have the western Powers almost thanking him for not grabbing more than Crimea.

                                     "Peace in our time"

Reactivated publishing soon

I have been busy lately and got myself a new job so the blog have been "silent" for some time. I will now restart work and calculate the historic and forecasted geostrategic power index values as well as the corresponding geographic locations for the center of gravity (centroids) over time.
Exciting stuff coming up then in 1-2 weeks time.

 

Coming soon

Coming up in the coming 1-2 weeks will be historical data as well as forecasted future developments of the geostrategic index itself, the underlying variables of the index and not the least,  the geographic movement of the centroids (center of gravity) over time.
It might be that the results from those calculations will be rolled out and published in step wise fashion. As previously, in those upcoming calculations, i will use credible open source data from institutions such as the IMF, World bank etc and make as little own predictions as possible, to further validate my results.

Risks for USA and China

The big challange for USA going forward is the debt levels (see world debt map) that have been built up for some time and really accelerated since the financial crisis broke out 2008. US debt levels have not yet reached unsustainable levels and so should be possible to bring under control if the national leadership is there. The debt levels is not explicitly part of the geostrategic power index but of course the cost of servicing the debt is something that indirectly feeds through and into a lower GDP growth rate  than would otherwise have been possible to achieve. However at the moment this cost is manageable due to the low interest rates charged on US debt which to a large degree in itself is depent on the US dollar being the Worlds reserve currency and so the USD is very sought after in times of turmoil keeping the interes rates low and the currency stable. In short depending on the will and ability of US leaders to bring balance to the national finances the USA holds its own future in its own hands to a very large degree which must be considered a good thing. 
China on the other hand have an altogether different level of risk. These risks are not part of the geostrategic power index and will not be included in the coming forecasts so they must be evaluated separately and complementary to the geostrategic power index. These risks include the tremendous economic inequality built up in the last years, massive urbanisation, massive and fast demographic change with aging of the population, massive water shortages in the North and spreading desertification, massive environmental issuess,
These are some of the challenges confronting China and looking back at the chinese history with its history of frequent rebellions, regional power centers and uprisings it is no wonder the chinese leaderships all overriding concern is and will be to keep the domestic peace at all cost. This is of course also of vital importance in order for the communist leadership literally to keep their heads on their shoulders.  

Geostrategic power index - comments and conclusions

The calculated geostrategic power index is a crude way to measure power but it is quite simple calculations used, using open data sources with clearly defined data with possibility to repeat calculations over time. What about the results then ? Could China be more powerful (already) than almighty USA. Why not i say. Not long ago Britain was the leading power in the world and i am sure that for the centemporary common people it would be hard to visualize Britain not being top dog.
However it is worth noting again i do not include or calculate with different forms of soft power in the geostrategic power index,  where USA is far more influential than China currently.
(Interesting to read in this regard is Pew Research´s Global Balance of Power including global survey results on such topics as USA-China image, Power etc)

Power projection capability

It must also be added that geostrategic power is not the same thing as capability for military power projection. China is a country located on the eurasian land mass bordering on some pretty signifikant and potentially hostile powers e,g India, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea and Russia all of which China have been at war with or experienced military clashes with at one point or the other since the 2nd World war. This means that to a considerable degree the structure and force dispositions of Chinas armed forces will be geared towards countering those potential adversaries and not readily available for long distance Power projection . Compare this to the USA position with its "sheltered" location in the western hemisphere surrounded by more or less friendly countries, except for Cuba and Venezuela which can be safely ignored as strategic threats, which leaves a major part of the US armed forces available for global Power projection missions.
All in all i think China have to reach a minimum of double the US geostrategic power index to be able to reach the same level of global power projection capability.
So in clonclusion then the nature of Chinese and US Power is different and Chinas Power is bound to be tied up more in its immediate neighborhood than US power which is more readily available for global outreach. Concerning other powers it is worthwile to note the outsize power of North Korea and Israel in the power index due mostly to the nuclear weapons status of these contries but also due to the considerable size of the conventional military.            

Comment on the Russia - Ukraine conflict (1)

I can not resist adding a comment related to the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict before coming back to the main subject of the geostrategic power index.

Russia with Putin at the helm have a strategic goal and a tactical plan for how to accomplish that goal. The west in general is probably and europé for sure is unable to respond to the russian game plan.
Putin have said that the collapse of the Sovjet Union was the biggest geopolitical catastrophe in the 20th Century. He said it and he meant it but he shouldn´t have said it because in that comment he also exposed his inner thoughts and to what purpose he intends to use his time in the highest offices of Russia. His all overriding concern is and will be to redress the severe decline in russian power since the collapse of the Sovjet Union. The way to do this is to claw back land and not least people in the  near abroad of Russia. The targets will be heavily ethnic russian populated parts of the near abroad such as Crimea, east Ukraine and north Kazakhstan as the most vulnerable parts up for grabs.
However, Russia today is not Sovjet Union but a much weaker Power not least in the military sense and so Putin knows he cant do all the grabbing in one go but will have to do it in step wise fashion. The tactical way or template to acchieve his strategic goal of adding people and land to russia is unfolding before our eyes concerning Crimea. First step is to grab what he want and do it fast and so establish facts on the ground (much like Israel is doing in Palestine with the everexpanding settlements in occupied terrritory). Secondly to arrange a popular vote in the territory grabbed and since the areas in question will be heavily ethnic russian populated the outcome is pretty sure. Third is to make more or less threatening and overt moves towards other potential target areas and so make a naive World (especially Europé) grateful that Russia in the end only took Crimea. Then Russia can wait a few years, concentrate on absorbing crimea into Russia and go after the Donets basin in east Ukraine in a second land-people grab.
And whatever we like it or not if Putin can pull this off for Russia he will increase russian Power in the world and the "russian on the street" will admire him for it.
The only thing that can possibly stop this scenario unfolding, at least during Putins time in office, is some kind of credible military threat or promise of military support from the outside world or really heavy and punishing economic sanctions that bites hard.
My recommendation would be immediate and heavy economic sanctions and then play a waiting game for Putins death either literally or in the political sense. Probably what comes after Putin will not be worse, for the outside world, and he is after all 62 years old and soon past his prime.